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Friday, September 29, 2006

Why are the Q-poll and Zogby so different?

Okay, at this point, you have to wonder about the methodology used in the latest Q-poll. How can this poll be so different than the other polls done over the last month.

Case in point, take a look at latest Zogby poll (pdf) which was released on the same day as the Q-poll.

First, we find out that the latest Zogby poll shows a much closer race between Lieberman and Lamont (Lieberman: 45.8 / Lamont 44.0 / Schlesinger 4.3), and now we find out that Zogby has the race for governor between Rell and Destefano closer as well (Rell: 49.4 / DeStefano: 33.8 / Thornton 1.3).

The DeStefano Campaign had this to say.
John DeStefano’s gubernatorial campaign is releasing the following statement regarding the latest Wall Street Journal / Zogby poll, just released today, which shows DeStefano trailing Gov. Rell by just 16 points. (34.8 to 50.9) The margin reflects a three point gain from the last Wall Street Journal / Zogby poll - which was released September 11th – and indicated that the race is the closest it has ever been. (The latest poll was taken between September 19 and the 25th).

"The Wall Street Journal / Zogby poll indicates that John DeStefano is gaining significant ground on Gov. Rell - despite her early advantage in t-v advertising," said Derek Slap - Communications Director for the DeStefano campaign. "Frankly, the Wall Street Journal / Zobgy poll is much closer to where our internal polling has us than the Quinnipiac poll.  It is further proof that people realize it's too expensive to live in Connecticut and DeStefano offers real change."
Now, don't get me wrong, Lamont and DeStefano have work to do with a little over a month to go till eleciton day but based on all the other polls conducted, it does seem like these races are closer than it seems to appear in the Q-poll but as we've seen in the primary, you can't get comfortable loking at a poll with over a month to go till election day.

With the debates approaching, both Democrats have to hit a home run and drive their case to the voters. No one has seem Rell and DeStefano one on one and it's been months since we're seen Lamont and Lieberman go at it (and don't forget about Schlesinger who has the potential to pull away votes from Lieberman). WIth a strong debate preformance as well as have a great ground game in place for the final weeks, you would be foolish to count anyone out of this race.