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Friday, August 11, 2006

Poll information

From My Left Nutmeg

The final numbers from Rasmussen, after surveying 550 "likely voters on August 9 & 10 (i.e. post-primary):

Lieberman 46%
Lamont 41%
Schlessinger 6%

That's more than the 3% spread they teased. Other highlights:

Very unfavorable: 18% Lieberman vs. 23% Lamont
Very favorable: 31% Lieberman vs. 19% Lamont

Rell beats DeStefano 57% to 35%

Voters trust Lieberman over Lamont on the "War on Terror" 55% to 31%.

Most important issues are theconomy (37%), Iraq (23%), and national security (16%).

They claim a MOE of + or - 4% with a 95% level of certainty.
Although I think it's quite silly being that it's August and this poll is based on such a small asmple (550, good grief) but lets take a small look at the details.

1. Since the last Rasmussen 3-way poll was 40-40-13, Ned is at +1, Joe is at +6, and Mr. Card is at -7. Basically, this is just GOP movement.

2. This poll was taken right after the primary and now we’re in day two of the GOP using the fear card (the only card they have left to use).

3. A sample of 550 is just too small for my taste when you consider how many people could vote in November.

4. Team Joementum went through millions of dollars and all they could muster was 48 percent of the vote. That's it folks. Now, do you think Alan Card is going to pull single digits in the general? Also, do you think all those who voted for Joe in the primary will vote for selfish indy Joe in the general? I've talked to many politicians and although many backed Joe in the primary, there is no way they'll back Joe in the general

5. Money will be hard to come by for Joe while Ned will have the D.C. brass (and everything that comes with it) behind him.

6. Never forget this: as more people learn about Lamont, Ned's number has ALWAYS gone up while Joe's numbers has ALWAYS gone down.

Now, that's not to say there isn't work to be done but this was always expected. Still, if you take a look at the last Q-poll, which did a three-way race, you'll see that Joe had a huge lead over Ned. How times have changed (although, I still don't put much stock in a small sample poll done right after a primary AND with the smear machine playing the fear card).