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Monday, August 07, 2006

Lastest Q-Poll: Lieberman gains on Lamont

The senate and governor's primary race is far from over.

Connecticut likely Democratic primary voters back challenger Ned Lamont 51 - 45 percent lead over incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 54 - 41 percent Lamont lead among likely Democratic primary voters in an August 3 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, 4 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided, but 90 percent of voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up.

In the Democratic primary for Governor, likely voters back New Haven Mayor John DeStefano 48 - 41 percent over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, with 10 percent undecided. This compares to a 48 - 38 percent DeStefano lead August 3.

In this latest survey, 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters who choose a candidate say they still might change their mind.

From July 31 - August 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 784 Connecticut likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Both races are very close...VERY CLOSE. AS I said before, turnout is going to be the factor in this race and you can bet Lieberman and Malloy are going to campaign hard in the next 24 hours to catch up to Lamont and DeStefano.

Here's the raw data.

1. If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano and Dan Malloy for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward DeStefano or Malloy? This table includes Leaners.



1b. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?



[...]

4. If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont for whom would you vote? (If undecided q4) As of today, do you lean more toward Lieberman or Lamont? This table includes Leaners.



4b. (If candidate choice q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?



DailyKos has an interesting analysis and offers these points.

* Likely voter models are tough to put together

* CT Democratic primaries historically skew liberal

* Intensity is unmeasured, as is GOTV

Observations:

* Lamont's favorable/unfavorable: the unfavorable remain relatively low at 42-18%, so negative ads haven't worked

* Lieberman's have slightly improved at 40-34%, but he's the incumbent and is below 50%

* How much does Lieberman's support of the war in Iraq influence your decision to vote for Lamont - Is it the main reason you are voting for Lamont, is it only one of the reasons, or is it not a reason at all?

LIKELY DEM PRIME VOTERS
NL voters

Main reason 36%
Only one reason 54
Not a reason at all 9
DK/NA 1

* The above means for 90% of voters the war matters (the national press conclusion), but that other factors matter for more than half the voters (the local conclusion, generally ignored by the national press).The out-of-touch national media will never understand the appeal towards Ned Lamont and they'll come into town tomorrow and try to define this race (like they've been here the entire time). The John McLaughlin piece goes to show you just how much these pundits don't understand what's going on in this state. Just remember this when you watch the talking heads tomorrow night.

Also, polls can't guage turnout and with a race this close, GOTV is more important than ever.