ConnecticutBLOG

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Lamont would win rematch

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

For whom did you vote for in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

Lieberman Lamont Schlesinger All 49 42 9 Dem 34 62 4 Rep 67 10 23 Ind 53 41 6

If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

Lieberman Lamont Schlesinger All 40 48 10 Dem 25 72 3 Rep 69 7 24 Ind 38 49 9

Lieberman won 50-40-10 in 2006, so the poll tracks closely. But even if you account for a slight Lamont bias, it still looks like buyer's remorse.

[...]

The Research 2000 Connecticut Poll was conducted from September 10 through September 12, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURE:

Men 283 (48%) Women 317 (52%) Democrats 210 (35%) Republicans 126 (21%) Independents/Other 264 (44%) 18-29 102 (17%) 30-44 186 (31%) 45-59 180 (30%) 60+ 132 (22%)

QUESTION: For whom did you vote for in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

LIEBERMAN LAMONT SCHLESINGER

ALL 49% 42% 9% MEN 51% 38% 11% WOMEN 47% 46% 7% DEMOCRATS 34% 62% 4% REPUBLICANS 67% 10% 23% INDEPENDENTS 53% 41% 6% 18-29 41% 52% 7% 30-44 44% 47% 9% 45-59 54% 37% 9% 60+ 56% 34% 10%

QUESTION: If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

LAMONT LIEBERMAN SCHLESINGER NOT SURE

ALL 48% 40% 10% 2% MEN 44% 43% 12% 1% WOMEN 52% 37% 8% 3% DEMOCRATS 72% 25% 3% - REPUBLICANS 7% 69% 24% - INDEPENDENTS 49% 38% 9% 4% 18-29 63% 31% 5% 1% 30-44 54% 34% 11% 1% 45-59 42% 47% 10% 1% 60+ 37% 48% 12% 3%