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Thursday, July 20, 2006

DeStefano-Malloy: inside the numbers

Here's the latest poll info on the governor's race
Incumbent Republican Jodi Rell has a 74 - 13 percent approval rating and better than 2 -1 leads over either of her Democratic challengers:

* 62 - 25 percent over New Haven Mayor John DeStefano, compared to 64 - 24 percent June 8;
* 64 - 23 percent over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, compared to 65 - 22 percent.

Gov. Rell gets a 59 - 7 percent favorability rating from Connecticut voters, with 22 percent mixed and 11 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. For DeStefano, 51 percent don't know enough to form an opinion; 75 percent for Malloy.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, DeStefano leads Malloy 52 - 32 percent, compared to a 46 - 35 percent DeStefano lead June 8.
With less than three weeks to go till the primary, Malloy has a good amount of work aheadc of him. Simply put, his "don' tknow enough about him" numbers are too high at this point in his campaign. In fact, both the candidate's "don't know enough about him" numbers are too high. For two politicians who've been in the race for over a year and a half, these numbers and unacceptable when you consider that one of these two candidates are going up against a popular governor.

Let's take a close look at the data.
TREND: Is your opinion of New Haven Mayor John DeStefano favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

TREND: Is your opinion of Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

TREND: If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?

TREND: If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Conclusion: It doesn't make a difference who wins this primary between Malloy and DeStefano. Both men are great candidates and if anything, it's a shame that we have to choose between these two guys. The real problem is that neither of these two guys seem able to make that connection with voters which is evident in their "don't know enough about them" numbers. When you add that with the fact that one of these men will be facing Gov. Rell, it's doesn't look too good for the Democrats.

But there is good news that can be described in two words: Lisa Moody.

Whoever wins this primary needs to pound in people minds the shady dealings of Lisa Moody and Gov. Rell inability to fire her. Malloy and DeStefano could make up ground quickly if they remind the voters about the Lisa moody scandal over and over again and tie her problems to the Rell administration. Unfortunately, neither of the two candidates have attacked Rell enough over the Moody mess which is unfortunate as the topic could chip away at Rell's popularity.