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Thursday, January 19, 2006

Why Lieberman is beatable part deux

David NYC over at the Swing State Project nails it again!

The CT primary is around six-and-a-half months from now - Aug. 9th. In October of 2003, also about 6 to 7 months out from the PA primary, Quinnipiac (the same pollster I referred to below) did a poll on the senate race in that state. This time, I just want to look at Dem voters in CT and GOP voters in PA (forget about tags like "liberal" or "conservative").
Job ApprovalSpecter among Republicans: 57-30Lieberman among Democrats: 55-29

Favorability (favorable-unfavorable-mixed)
Specter among Republicans: 49-18-25
Lieberman among Democrats: 50-15-28

Six months out, Specter was looking pretty comfortable. But as Adam notes, the race tightened considerably in a very short amount of time, and Specter came within a hair's breadth of an early retirement. Lieberman's numbers are virtually identical.


Now, we can definitely debate the wisdom of whether Lamont should take on Lieberman. I'm fairly torn, but I'm personally leaning toward "yes." However, I doubt we'll come to any kind of resolution, or shed more light on the subject. I'd wager that we're all very familiar with all the pros and cons - which is why I'm more interested in discussing what's likely to happen, not whether it should happen. And on that score, I definitely think Lieberman is beatable.
David can see the writing on the wall and you should too. Lieberman is very beatable and you can bet the house that he is fully aware that his there's a possibility that he'll lose on the primary.

This doesn't mean that Lamont will definately win either.

If Lamont is going to get into the game, he better be prepared for a fight because although Lieberman is beatable, Lamont will need to show the voters why he would do a better job if elected senator.

Also, it wouldn't hurt if Lamont had a website where people could get information about him, learn where he stands on certain issues, and most importantly, where he will be making future appearences so more people could show up and here what he has to say (my two cents).