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Thursday, June 05, 2008

It's a toss-up!

Paging Congressman Chris Shays...you now have a problem.
The Cook Political Report, whose ratings of Congressional races are well-respected by political pros, has just changed its ratings on ten House races -- and has changed them all in favor of the Dems.

It's very rare that Cook flips so many ratings at once -- much less flipping them all in favor of the same political party.


CT-04 - Chris Shays - Lean Republican to Toss Up

Here's the full report from the Cook Report...
Of all the Republican incumbents who are moving into the Toss Up
column, Shays probably possesses the deepest and longest-standing
personal appeal. But he also sits in the most Democratic district. At
a PVI of D+5, this district has a clear leftward tilt and more urban
cities like Bridgeport and Stamford are likely to see a surge of
support for Obama. Shays survived impressively in 2006 because voters
knew the difference between him and national Republican leaders, but a
presidential year presents him with an even more difficult test.

Democratic investment banker Jim Himes starts out the race with less
name recognition than Westport selectwoman Diane Farrell began with in
2006, but his blistering fundraising pace will allow him to get his
name out in the fall and match Shays dollar-for-dollar on television
and in mail. Himes will also be able to argue that now that Shays is
in the minority, the value of his incumbency has diminished.

McCain's nomination saves Shays some grief and reinforces the helpful
notion that Republicans can be mavericks. But in this kind of district
and political climate, Shays can take nothing for granted.